does that take into account some inflation, or do you expect prices to be unchanged into infinity?
"Above is a table which shows where asset prices stand vs the historical average since 2008. As can be seen, Crude and Product Tankers’ values are considerably up vs historical averages, especially on vintage tonnage (exacerbated by sales to the dark fleet)"
Vessel prices depends on various things, and inflation can explain just a small part of these changes; vessel earnings (TC rates) have a much bigger effect on price changes.
An example of this is, inflation between 2008 and 2020 was ca. 1.5% per year, so $1 in 2008 would be equal to $1.2 in 2020. Despite this, a VLCC resale which had a value of $165m in March 2008, was worth only $104m in March 2020.
We are not making projections on where vessel prices.
tks for ur writings, but on the panamax and kamsarmax 2022/2023/2024,average spot daily rates, i check the baltic exchange summary which is different from urs (from clarkson data？)
2024 2023 2022
180K 5tc 22,593 16,389 16,177
82k 5tc 14,099 12,854 20,736
76k 4tc 12,763 11,518 20,600
i stand with baltic exchange data, hope it is helpful to u
Correct, the numbers in the table are from Clarksons. I don't think the slight difference between Baltic vs Clarksons data would change the assessment made in the article.
does that take into account some inflation, or do you expect prices to be unchanged into infinity?
"Above is a table which shows where asset prices stand vs the historical average since 2008. As can be seen, Crude and Product Tankers’ values are considerably up vs historical averages, especially on vintage tonnage (exacerbated by sales to the dark fleet)"
Vessel prices depends on various things, and inflation can explain just a small part of these changes; vessel earnings (TC rates) have a much bigger effect on price changes.
An example of this is, inflation between 2008 and 2020 was ca. 1.5% per year, so $1 in 2008 would be equal to $1.2 in 2020. Despite this, a VLCC resale which had a value of $165m in March 2008, was worth only $104m in March 2020.
We are not making projections on where vessel prices.
tks for ur writings, but on the panamax and kamsarmax 2022/2023/2024,average spot daily rates, i check the baltic exchange summary which is different from urs (from clarkson data？)
2024 2023 2022
180K 5tc 22,593 16,389 16,177
82k 5tc 14,099 12,854 20,736
76k 4tc 12,763 11,518 20,600
i stand with baltic exchange data, hope it is helpful to u
Correct, the numbers in the table are from Clarksons. I don't think the slight difference between Baltic vs Clarksons data would change the assessment made in the article.
Terrific write up guys. Concise and to the point. Thanks 🙏
Great insights
Great post, thank you. I find this indusrty very volatile and difficult to invest in. Posts like these help clarify some things.